Overview
- On Saturday, reporting highlighted a century-and-a-half valuation measure that puts current stock prices at levels that historically have preceded big market drawdowns.
- Major U.S. indexes remain near multi-year and record highs after strong gains this year tied to AI-led growth, corporate earnings and hefty share buybacks.
- Several warning indicators have climbed together, including all-time margin debt, rising long-term Treasury yields and oil above $100 a barrel, which raise the odds of a sharp sell-off.
- Near-term catalysts that could trigger volatility include renewed tariff swings, a higher probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes and the Nov. 3 midterm elections that could change congressional control and complicate debt talks.
- Financial advisers emphasize history shows long-term investors are best served by staying invested and using diversification and regular contributions because timing a market top is repeatedly shown to fail.