Overview
- In a peer-reviewed Financial Review paper, UTEP researchers analyzed more than 13,000 NFL penalties from 2015–2023 and reported postseason officiating trends that benefited the Kansas City Chiefs during the Patrick Mahomes era.
- During playoff games, penalties against opposing defenses were 23% more likely to yield first downs, added an average of 2.36 yards, and were 28% more likely to be subjective calls such as roughing the passer or pass interference.
- The authors, led by assistant professor Spencer Barnes, frame the findings as consistent with regulatory-capture dynamics in high-revenue settings rather than proof of deliberate misconduct.
- Comparable effects were not found for the Tom Brady–era New England Patriots or other recent contenders, suggesting the pattern was not broadly shared across dominant teams.
- The NFL and the NFL Referees Association have rejected the study’s implication of bias, with league officials dismissing the premise, and no league investigation had been announced as of publication.