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Utah Must Win Out, Get Help to Reach Big 12 Title Game

Analytics give Utah a slight edge to sweep its final three games, starting with Saturday’s trip to Baylor.

Overview

  • Utah is No. 13 in the CFP rankings at 7-2 (4-2 Big 12) but does not control its path after losses to Texas Tech and BYU.
  • ESPN’s model pegs the Utes as favorites in each remaining game—78.7% at Baylor, 85.4% vs. Kansas State, 80.8% at Kansas—with a 54.3% chance to win all three.
  • Committee chair Mack Rhodes cited Utah’s convincing wins over Arizona State and Cincinnati as evidence of a respected résumé.
  • Utah’s recent dominance includes an average victory margin of about 36 points, a No. 9 ESPN FPI rating, and top-10 national marks in scoring offense and defense.
  • The most plausible title route requires specific results elsewhere, including Cincinnati beating BYU before taking another loss, Texas Tech winning out, and multi-team tiebreakers that could hinge on opponents’ conference win percentages.