Overview
- The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, published Aug. 25, found Gov. Greg Abbott at 45% and Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 40%, a five-point gap inside the survey's ±2.83 percentage-point margin of error.
- The same poll puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 42% to 39%, a result other recent surveys also show as effectively a toss-up for control of the U.S. Senate seat.
- Independents lean toward the Democratic candidates and remain a large swing bloc, with the poll showing independents prefer Hinojosa to Abbott 37% to 17% while many independents are still undecided.
- Voters across party lines oppose building data centers in their communities, 57% to 30%, a stance that prompted Abbott directives and has left roughly 1,800 projects paused or delayed.
- Other statewide races show single-digit Republican leads, and analysts point to fundraising gaps, Paxton's legal and ethics baggage, outside spending and turnout as likely determinants as early voting starts Oct. 19 and Election Day is Nov. 3.