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USRussia Nuclear Test Talk Escalates as China’s Arsenal Growth Draws Scrutiny

Analysts cast the exchange as a distraction from urgent arms-control engagement with Beijing.

Overview

  • On October 30, President Trump publicly told the Pentagon to start testing U.S. nuclear weapons immediately, a directive delivered without clarifying what kind of tests he intended.
  • Russia’s president said he ordered the foreign and defense ministries to present proposals on possibly preparing for nuclear weapons tests.
  • The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty bans explosive tests but permits subcritical experiments and delivery-system trials, and the United States and China have not ratified it while Russia withdrew ratification in 2023.
  • Independent seismic monitoring has detected no large nuclear detonations since 1996, and Beijing, Moscow and Islamabad deny carrying out secret tests.
  • Pentagon assessments say China has expanded its stockpile to roughly 600 warheads with projections of 1,000–1,500 by the early 2030s, raising concerns that renewed testing talk could weaken norms and complicate future arms-control efforts.