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U.S.–Mexico Water Standoff Deepens as Trump Threatens 5% Tariff and Negotiations Continue

Mexico cites treaty carryover provisions limiting immediate transfers.

Overview

  • Technical teams from both countries held a virtual meeting on Dec. 9, marking the fifth binational session this year to review Rio Grande deliveries under the 1944 treaty.
  • Trump demands 200,000 acre-feet be released by Dec. 31 and claims more than 800,000 acre-feet are owed, warning he has authorized a 5% tariff if Mexico does not act immediately.
  • President Claudia Sheinbaum says Mexico will seek an agreement but cannot move the requested volumes at once due to drought, low reservoir levels and limited conveyance capacity, prioritizing human consumption.
  • Mexican officials argue the treaty allows shortfalls to be carried into the next five-year cycle, while U.S. complaints highlight harm to Texas agriculture and coincide with a $12 billion farm aid announcement.
  • Further high-level engagement is scheduled this week, including a U.S. delegation meeting in Mexico City on Dec. 11, as both sides explore phased deliveries and technical options to boost conveyance.