Overview
- Washington and Tehran are exploring an extension of the two‑week truce set to expire April 22, with direct contact reported this week after earlier Pakistan‑mediated talks collapsed.
- The Pentagon says the port blockade will continue without a set end date and U.S. Central Command says it has been fully enforced, while senior Iranian figures threaten wider disruption at sea.
- Stocks notched records in the U.S. and Asia on Thursday on hopes for more talks, and oil eased from recent highs with Brent near $95 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $92.
- Prediction markets show low odds of a near‑term breakthrough but far higher chances by late May, with contracts pricing roughly 80% for lifting the blockade by May 31 and much lower odds for this week.
- The stakes are global because the Strait of Hormuz carries about one‑fifth of seaborne oil, a squeeze that has raised fuel costs for drivers and airlines and risks pushing inflation higher if disruptions persist.