U.S.–Iran Exchanges Send Oil Soaring and Bond Yields to Multi‑Month Highs

Overview

• Direct military strikes between the United States and Iran resumed over the weekend when U.S. forces struck missile launchers on Larak Island and Iranian forces launched missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan, and President Donald Trump warned of further operations.
• Global crude jumped roughly 2–5 percent with Brent trading into the low $90s and reports that visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to only a handful of ships, raising short‑term supply concerns.
• Sovereign bond yields rose sharply, with the U.S. 10‑year and several long‑dated European yields reaching multi‑month or multi‑year highs, and major equity indices including the STOXX 600 and U.S. benchmarks moved lower on the shock.
• Gold prices fell as markets reacted to higher oil and rising yields and re‑priced a greater chance of tighter Federal Reserve policy after hawkish comments at Jackson Hole.
• Brazilian markets diverged from global risk moves: the Ibovespa and Petrobras climbed while the real strengthened and local interest‑rate contracts fell after Q2 GDP showed slower growth and election‑related flows trimmed domestic risk premia.