Overview
- U.S. forces destroyed several Iranian oil tankers and Iran and allied Houthi groups launched counter‑attacks, a cycle of strikes that sent Brent briefly above $100 per barrel on Wednesday, Sept. 9.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped far below prewar levels, with official estimates showing volumes fell to roughly 4.9 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and current flows reported well below historical norms, intensifying supply‑risk concerns.
- Exporters and traders have tried to reduce the shock by using alternative routes, ship‑to‑ship transfers and restarting Gulf loadings such as Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura, while higher output from non‑OPEC producers has added roughly 1.4 million bpd of supply this year.
- The physical market is strained: Oman and Dubai cargos and spot differentials have traded above $100, refiners report severe diesel shortages, and retail diesel prices in the U.S. hit record highs, showing the disruption is already affecting consumers and industry.
- Major banks have lifted price forecasts and markets are re‑pricing inflation and monetary policy risk, with analysts warning that a prolonged or wider disruption to Gulf exports could push prices much higher and force central banks toward tighter policy.