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USDA’s Record Corn Forecast and Softer Soy Outlook Reshape Grain Markets

President Trump’s call for China to boost US soybean purchases, coupled with the USDA’s revised data, fueled a rebound in Chicago soy futures.

Overview

  • The USDA’s August report raised its US corn production forecast to a record 425.26 million tonnes by incorporating agronomic conditions into yield estimates.
  • US soybean output was trimmed to 116.82 million tonnes and ending stocks lowered to 7.89 million tonnes, reversing prior market expectations.
  • Chicago soybean futures jumped about US$5.50 to US$369.09 after the report as corn and wheat futures slid on rising US stocks.
  • Argentina’s Rosario spot soybean prices fell by ARS 5,000 to offers near ARS 385,000 per tonne despite gains in Chicago futures.
  • Early-August cuts to Argentina’s corn and soy export duties drove farmer selling that left local exporters net-short and processors with thin inventories.