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USDA Trims U.S. Corn Stocks and Boosts Global Wheat as Argentina Cuts Export Taxes

Robust ethanol output plus heavy speculative positioning are amplifying grain price volatility.

Overview

  • USDA cut 2025/26 U.S. corn ending stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.029 billion on higher export demand, with futures giving back part of Tuesday’s rally.
  • World wheat production and ending stocks were raised by 3.44 MMT, pressuring U.S. wheat futures even as the domestic balance sheet was little changed.
  • USDA left the U.S. soybean balance unchanged at 290 mbu and nudged global stocks up 0.38 MMT, while prices softened before stabilizing intraday.
  • Fresh U.S. export prints showed 136,000 MT of soybeans sold to China plus other sales, weekly inspections at 1.018 MMT, and CFTC data highlighting large managed‑money longs in soybeans.
  • Argentina reduced export taxes to 24% for soybeans (22.5% for products), 7.5% for wheat, and 8.5% for corn, as EIA reported near‑record U.S. ethanol output of 1.105 million bpd supporting corn demand.