USDA Restarts Reporting, Trims Corn and Soy Yields as Futures Drop on Thin China Purchases

Overview

• The updated Crop Production report put U.S. corn yield at 186 bpa, a 0.7 bpa cut from September, lowering output by 62 million bushels to 16.752 billion.
• USDA pegged U.S. soybean yield at 53 bpa, cutting production to 4.253 billion bushels and taking ending stocks down to 290 million after exports were reduced by 50 million.
• Backlogged large daily sales showed 4.915 MMT of corn and 1.348 MMT of soybeans, with only 332,000 MT of soybeans confirmed to China and 616,000 MT listed to Unknown destinations.
• WASDE raised the 2024/25 U.S. corn carryout by 207 million bushels to 1.532 billion and lifted 2025/26 total supply to 18.309 billion, with exports up 100 million and carryout at 2.154 billion.
• Markets fell after the releases, with corn down roughly 9–11 cents and soybeans off about 12–16 cents intraday, as traders reacted to smaller-than-expected corn cuts and limited confirmed Chinese buying.