Overview

• Total U.S. beef supply for 2026 is now projected at 31.1 billion pounds, down 2.5% from this year and the lowest level since 2019.
• Domestic production is forecast to fall 1.8% to 25.5 billion pounds, marking its smallest volume since 2016.
• Imports are expected to decline 6.1% to 4.95 billion pounds following Trump administration tariffs on Brazilian beef.
• Years of drought and high feed costs have driven ranchers to cull herds, shrinking U.S. cattle inventories to multi-decade lows.
• Plans to rebuild the herd in 2026 could tighten short-term slaughter supplies as more breeding females are retained.