USDA Lifts Corn Output and Grain Stocks, Tightens Cotton in Midday Balance-Sheet Reset

Futures quickly repriced to larger grain supplies, highlighting a tighter U.S. cotton sheet.

Overview

NASS pegged U.S. corn yield at 186.5 bpa with production at 17.021 billion bushels as WASDE raised 2025/26 ending stocks to 2.227 billion, pushing corn futures down roughly 16 to 17 cents.
USDA held soybean yield at 53 bpa and put production at 4.262 billion bushels while raising carryout to 350 million after trimming exports and nudging crush higher, leaving futures 9 to 13 cents lower.
Winter Wheat Seedings came in at 32.99 million acres and WASDE lifted U.S. wheat ending stocks to 926 million bushels, and all three wheat markets slipped after early gains.
USDA cut the U.S. cotton yield to 856 lbs/acre and production to 13.92 million bales, lowering ending stocks to 4.2 million bales as cotton futures gained 60 to 68 points.
Weekly inspections showed strong shipments with 1.49 MMT of corn and 1.529 MMT of soybeans led by China, and WASDE increased Brazil’s soybean crop estimate by 3 MMT to 178 MMT.