USDA Data Return Rattles Grains as Supplies Rise and China Soy Buys Disappoint

Overview

• USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at 186 bpa and production at 16.752 billion bushels, lifting 2024/25 carryout to 1.532 billion and 2025/26 supply to 18.309 billion as futures fell 10 to 11.5 cents.
• Backlogged daily reports revealed 4.915 MMT of large corn flash sales, including 4.367 MMT for the current marketing year.
• Soybean futures slid 17 to 22.25 cents after USDA showed just 1.348 MMT of previously unreported large sales with China taking 332,000 MT, while the U.S. yield was set at 53 bpa, production at 4.253 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 290 million.
• Wheat futures declined after U.S. ending stocks were raised to 901 million bushels and world stocks climbed to 271.43 MMT on higher output from several exporters.
• Cotton futures hit new lows as USDA lifted U.S. yield to 919 lbs/acre, raised production to 14.12 million bales, and increased ending stocks to 4.3 million, while traders also noted ethanol output at 1.075 million bpd and a stock draw ahead of Monday’s NOPA crush data.