Overview
- Top negotiators reported a preliminary trade consensus and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the threat of 100% tariffs is effectively off the table ahead of a planned Trump–Xi meeting this week.
- Futures pricing pointed to roughly a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut at Wednesday’s decision following softer U.S. inflation readings.
- Asian equities hit fresh milestones, with Japan’s Nikkei breaching 50,000 and South Korea’s Kospi setting a record, while U.S. benchmarks and futures advanced to new highs.
- Cryptocurrencies rebounded as Bitcoin reclaimed about $115,000 and Ethereum traded above $4,100, with CoinGlass data showing hundreds of millions of dollars in short liquidations and mixed spot ETF flows.
- Safe-haven demand eased as gold fell, crude ticked higher on trade optimism, and investors looked to the Fed decision and the Trump–Xi summit as the next tests for risk appetite.