U.S.–China Farm Trade Pledges Jolt Ag Markets During USDA Data Blackout

Overview

• After the Trump–Xi meeting, President Trump posted that China plans large agricultural purchases and signaled ag tariffs would be lifted, though details were scant.
• Secretary Scott Bessent said China committed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year and 25 MMT annually for the next three years, a figure not independently verified with USDA reports halted.
• Price action turned choppy: soybeans rallied Thursday then eased Friday, corn slipped after steady trade, wheat fell on a sell‑the‑fact move, cotton pulled back, and cattle held firmer.
• EIA reported weekly ethanol output at 1.091 million barrels per day with a stock build to 22.367 million barrels, tempering corn demand sentiment.
• Fundamental signals outside USDA included Rabobank’s large Brazil crop estimates, a sharp drop in Ukraine’s October corn exports to about 0.8 MMT, and stronger U.S. export inspections year over year.