Overview

• President Trump said he is “almost decided” on supplying Tomahawks but wants Kyiv to specify intended targets and tactics, with initial use limits reported by the Telegraph.
• The Kremlin called a potential transfer a “serious escalation,” and Putin and Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov warned it could rupture U.S.–Russia relations and trigger a new phase of the conflict.
• ISW estimates that Tomahawk ranges of 1,600 to 2,500 km could threaten about 1,655 to 1,945 Russian military sites, including locations such as the Engels-2 air base and the Jelabuga drone facility.
• Moscow says it has seen no Ukrainian preparations for launch infrastructure, while Ukrainian lawmaker Yegor Cherniev described a phased approach intended to raise pressure before any strikes.
• Russian messaging escalated with a state TV threat toward Poland’s Rzeszów logistics hub and references to nuclear-capable variants, yet no U.S. decision or Ukrainian launch preparations have been confirmed.