Overview

• Israeli air raids destroyed Natanz’s above-ground enrichment hall and damaged its underground vaults, but the Fordow facility remains largely intact beneath about 260 feet of rock, the IAEA reports.
• The president is expected to decide within two weeks whether to join Israel by deploying the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which can only be carried on U.S. B-2 stealth bombers.
• Capable of penetrating roughly 200 feet of reinforced concrete and earth, the GBU-57 would likely need multiple sequential strikes to reach Fordow’s deepest chambers, raising questions about its single-strike impact.
• National security experts warn that even a successful breach would only delay Iran’s nuclear program, since stockpiles of enriched uranium and dispersed centrifuge sites would allow operations to resume swiftly.
• The IAEA this week adopted a resolution finding that Iran violated its non-proliferation commitments by illegally stockpiling enriched uranium.