Overview

• Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, defying economists’ forecasts of 235,000–238,000.
• Continuing claims rose by 10,000 to 1.965 million, marking the highest level since November 2021 and underscoring extended job searches.
• The four-week moving average of new applications dipped to 235,500, its lowest reading since late May.
• Data for the period included July 4 holiday closures and summer auto-plant retooling shutdowns that typically introduce volatility in weekly filings.
• Employers are holding onto current staff even as hiring slows, prompting the Fed to keep its policy rate at 4.25%–4.50% while monitoring inflation risks from tariffs.