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US Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Below Estimates, Four-Week Average Dips

Trade policy uncertainty has led firms to pare back hiring despite stable layoffs, reinforcing the Fed’s rate pause.

Overview

  • Initial jobless claims slipped 4,000 to 217,000 for the week ended July 19, compared with economists’ forecast of 226,000.
  • The four-week moving average of new claims fell by 5,000 to 224,500, easing from June’s eight-month peak.
  • Continuing claims increased by 4,000 to 1.955 million for the week ending July 12, indicating slower rehiring.
  • Employers have prioritized retaining existing staff over expanding payrolls in the face of uncertainty over President Trump’s trade policies.
  • The Federal Reserve is keeping its policy rate at 4.25%–4.50% as stable layoffs and subdued hiring sustain its focus on inflation.