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U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Dip Below Forecast to 217,000

Trade-policy uncertainty coincides with seasonal factors that continue to constrain hiring, leading economists to expect the Fed to hold rates

A now hiring and help wanted sign is posted in Morrisville, Pa., Monday, June 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
A “Help Wanted” sign hangs in restaurant window in Medford, Massachusetts, U.S., January 25, 2023. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo
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Overview

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week ending July 19, undershooting the 226,000 forecast.
  • Continuing claims rose by 4,000 to 1.955 million in the week ending July 12, pointing to slowed rehiring.
  • Employers are holding back on new hires as protectionist tariffs and annual auto plant closures weigh on decisions.
  • Economists predict the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% when it meets next week.
  • A projected slowdown in immigration is expected to lower the breakeven monthly job growth needed to stabilize unemployment to about 70,000 by late 2025.