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U.S. Visa Delays Propel Student Shift to UK, Hong Kong and Australia

U.S. consular backlogs plus new social media vetting rules have driven F-1 issuances to multi-year lows, leaving universities facing billions in revenue losses with tens of thousands of jobs at risk.

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Overview

  • U.S. consulates remain backlogged after visa appointment suspensions and expanded social media checks upended processing timelines.
  • F-1 issuances to Indian students fell 34% in FY24 and another 29% in early FY25, prompting projections of a 70–80% decline in their autumn enrollments.
  • NAFSA and JB International estimate a 30–40% drop in new international arrivals this fall, threatening up to $7 billion in tuition revenue and more than 60,000 U.S. jobs.
  • The UK lifted intake caps and recorded a 2.2% rise in undergraduate applications this autumn as graduate admissions climbed by 10%.
  • Hong Kong universities reported over 500 transfer enquiries and a 40% surge in undergraduate interest while Australia boosted its 2026 student intake cap to 295,000.