Overview
- Long-term Treasury yields have climbed to roughly 5.2% on the 10-year and 5.5% on the 30-year, levels not seen in two decades and above the CBO’s February baseline projections.
- The CBO’s scenario that assumes a sustained 1 percentage-point higher rate shows total deficits rising to about 14% of GDP and publicly held debt near 222% of GDP by 2056.
- Rising yields are already increasing the federal government’s borrowing costs with interest expenses near $1 trillion a year while the budget deficit is on pace for about $2 trillion this year.
- Market drivers include higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, heavy corporate borrowing from large tech firms, a hot economy, and softer demand at some Treasury auctions.
- Policy responses so far—expanded Treasury buybacks and requests for updated CBO analysis—are limited compared with the stock of issuance and offer little near-term relief without fiscal changes.