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U.S. to Control Venezuelan Oil Sales Indefinitely as Majors Weigh Return

A years-long, capital-intensive rebuild of PDVSA looms despite a short-term bond rally.

Overview

  • U.S. officials said Washington will manage Venezuelan crude sales on an open-ended basis and has begun talks with oil companies, with the president indicating the U.S. will decide which firms operate there.
  • Oil benchmarks edged higher, with Brent around $62.17 a barrel and WTI near $57.93, as traders assessed Venezuelan developments alongside broader supply risks.
  • Repsol said it could triple its Venezuelan production to about 135,000 barrels a day within two to three years if legal stability is secured, while ExxonMobil and Chevron evaluate expanded activity under stronger protections.
  • Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA bonds rebounded sharply, climbing from roughly 10% to about 35% of face value following the reported capture of Nicolás Maduro.
  • Analysts project a slow recovery, with Rystad estimating about $183 billion needed to lift output to 3 million barrels a day by 2040, leaving Brazil, Guyana and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta as nearer-term regional growth drivers.