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2w ago

U.S. Tariffs to Settle Near 22% With Strategic Duties Locked In

The forecast underscores how elevated duties have crystallized trade policy, paving the way for renewed corporate deal-making.

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo
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Overview

  • JPMorgan projects that average U.S. import tariffs will stabilize around 22 percent and warns that levies on semiconductors and defense are unlikely to be rolled back after President Trump's term.
  • Targeted deals with the European Union, Japan, the United Kingdom and Vietnam plus truces with China and Mexico have established a new tariff normal between 10 and 25 percent with quotas on select goods.
  • Clarity on the durable tariff framework has triggered a flurry of mergers and acquisitions, including the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern railroad merger and the Synovus-Pinnacle regional bank tie-up.
  • Tariff revenue has reached $126.5 billion year to date, funds that are being allocated to deficit reduction and productive investments.
  • Economists forecast that the high-tariff regime could shave under a full percentage point off annual GDP growth and add up to one percentage point to inflation through 2026.