Overview

• Economists at the India Today Conclave said the 50% levy combines a 25% reciprocal tariff with a 25% penalty tied to India’s purchases of Russian oil and military equipment.
• About $35 billion in shipments, roughly 0.8% of GDP, are exposed, with gems and jewellery, textiles, leather, and footwear facing the sharpest pressure.
• The panel warned that more than 10 million jobs linked to these sectors could be at risk if the penalty persists.
• Retaliation was discouraged in favor of calm negotiations and near‑term support such as credit guarantees, liquidity lines, and targeted fiscal measures to keep firms afloat.
• Experts called for a domestic‑demand‑led strategy, highlighting the weight of services exports (about 7% of GDP versus roughly 1% from US‑bound goods) and pressing for GST rationalisation and direct tax reforms.