Overview

• President Trump’s executive order imposing 10–41% tariffs on imports took effect August 1, stoking concerns over weaker global oil consumption
• Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries continuing to buy Russian crude, including China and India, raising the prospect of supply disruptions
• A Reuters poll found analysts maintaining 2025 oil price forecasts around $67.84 for Brent and $64.61 for WTI amid market volatility
• Eight OPEC+ members agreed to boost output by 548,000 barrels per day in August and are poised to authorize a similar increase for September
• Persistent risk premiums from the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions are underpinning prices as analysts warn of slower demand growth and potential oversupply