Overview

• A Reuters poll of 16 economists forecasts a 2.7% year-on-year fall in May exports, marking the first contraction since January.
• Semiconductor shipments exceeded expectations but likely reflect advance orders placed before tariff measures took effect.
• Shipments to the United States fell 14.6% in the first 20 days of May, while exports to China dropped 7.2%.
• Imports are projected to have declined 3.1% in May, narrowing the trade surplus to an estimated $4.61 billion.
• Economists warn the export slump could extend into the second quarter as uncertainty builds ahead of the July 9 and August 12 tariff pause deadlines.