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U.S. Tariffs Drive Rush in Mexican Exports as Buyers Stockpile to Dodge 50% Duties

Mexico stands as the most exposed supplier under the expanded metal‑derivatives measures, accounting for about 21% of the affected U.S. imports.

Las ventas de ciertos artículos se han disparado en el último año. Foto: Especial (Presidencia de México/AP/Ilustrativas | editada en Canva)
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Overview

  • Effective August 18, the White House broadened 50% Section 232 tariffs to 407 classifications of steel‑ and aluminum‑derived goods, covering items from tools to appliance components.
  • U.S. Department of Commerce data show sharp first‑half 2025 increases in selected Mexican exports, including a 17‑fold jump in turbines and hydraulic wheels to $3.1 million and a 13% rise in refrigerators and heat pumps.
  • Analysts report U.S. companies accelerated purchases from Mexico to build inventories ahead of higher duties, boosting near‑term shipment volumes.
  • DOC records indicate fewer than 10% of Mexican refrigerators and other iron and steel goods meet USMCA origin rules, leaving most of these shipments liable for a 25% tariff.
  • Agribusiness leaders warn that any 25% duty on farm goods would be hard for producers to absorb, raising concerns about potential extensions of tariffs to agricultural products.