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U.S. Tariffs Drive $1.2 Trillion Corporate Cost Shock With Prices Rising for Consumers

Corporate filings show $35 billion in identified charges, with EU and Japan deals easing some forecasts.

Overview

  • S&P Global estimates tariffs have added about $1.2 trillion to 2025 corporate expenses after revising forecasts across roughly 9,000 public companies.
  • Of an estimated $907 billion hit to large retailers’ profits, about $592 billion is being passed to shoppers through higher prices while roughly $315 billion is absorbed in earnings.
  • Reuters’ review of disclosures finds more than $35 billion in tariff costs flagged heading into third-quarter earnings, with Toyota’s $9.5 billion estimate driving much of the increase.
  • Many companies have lowered earlier worst‑case projections following lower‑rate agreements with the European Union and Japan and targeted relief for autos and some drug manufacturing.
  • Company updates highlight price hikes and margin pressure at consumer brands and manufacturers — including Nike’s $1.5 billion estimate, H&M’s warning, SEB’s outlook cut, and Ford’s $3 billion cumulative hit — as uncertainty lingers over potential new China duties.