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U.S. Tariffs Curb German Exports, With Autos Suffering the Deepest Drop, IW Finds

Researchers say elevated import duties now set a higher baseline that makes a swift U.S. rebound unlikely.

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Exporthafen für Neuwagen aus der Luft fotografiert.
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Overview

  • German goods shipments to the United States fell 7.8% in January–September 2025, reversing the average annual growth of roughly 5% seen from 2016 to 2024, according to the IW study.
  • Auto and parts exports to the U.S. declined about 14% after an extra 25% levy took effect in April and was later cut to a 15% general rate from August under an EU–U.S. agreement.
  • Machinery exports dropped roughly 9.5%, with the IW noting exposure to U.S. punitive tariffs of about 50% on steel, aluminum and related products.
  • Chemical exports fell around 9.5%, and the IW points to reduced German output linked to higher domestic energy costs as an additional drag.
  • IW researcher Samina Sultan warns tariffs are unlikely to return to pre‑Trump levels and urges market diversification and trade-policy moves such as pursuing the Mercosur agreement.