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US Tariff Squeezes India’s September Exports to America as Non-US Markets Power Growth

Diversification to non-US destinations cushions the tariff hit, supporting a projected current account gap near 1% of GDP.

Overview

  • Merchandise exports to the United States fell 11.9% in September to roughly $5.46–$5.5 billion after a 50% tariff took effect on August 27 and exporters frontloaded shipments in August.
  • Sales to non-US markets rose 10.9% in September, and overall exports grew 6.7% to $36.4 billion, indicating resilience outside the US.
  • For April–September, exports increased 3.02% to $220.12 billion and imports rose 4.53% to $375.11 billion, widening the merchandise trade deficit to $154.99 billion.
  • Evidence of diversification strengthened as 24 destination countries posted positive growth totaling $129.3 billion, or 59% of exports, with exporters redirecting efforts toward Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.
  • Crisil flags export headwinds from US tariffs and slower global growth but expects the current account deficit to hover near 1% of GDP, while officials expand a focus-market program by 30 countries and India continues trade talks with the US.