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U.S. Stocks Trade Near Dot-Com Valuations as Shiller CAPE Climbs to 40.9

Such extremes have historically preceded subdued decade-long returns.

Overview

  • The S&P 500’s CAPE ratio is reported at 40.9, a level last approached during the 1999–2000 dot-com era.
  • Over the past 10 years the index returned about 16% annualized, well above the roughly 10% long-run average cited in the report.
  • Research referenced in the coverage suggests the next decade’s annualized returns could be low or even negative, though the sources are not specified.
  • The article argues long-horizon investors may still benefit from staying invested despite elevated valuations and likely lower forward returns.
  • The piece mixes valuation commentary with promotional content from The Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor service.