Overview

• On Friday, the Nasdaq closed at a record while the S&P 500 was flat and the Dow fell 0.6%, capping the best week in five for major indexes.
• August CPI matched forecasts at 2.9% year over year with core at 3.1% as jobless claims jumped to 263,000, initially pulling the 10-year yield near 3.99% before a rebound.
• Futures imply a near-certain 25-basis-point move at the Sept. 16–17 meeting, with focus shifting to the Fed’s projections and signals on the path of additional cuts.
• University of Michigan data showed consumer sentiment fell again in September, with 1-year inflation expectations steady at 4.8% and 5-year expectations up to 3.9%.
• Tech and AI-linked shares helped drive recent record highs, though analysts warn gains could falter if the Fed delivers fewer cuts than markets anticipate.