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U.S. Stocks Hit New Records on Near-Certain September Fed Rate Cut

Treasury yields fell on softer inflation with cooler jobs data, fueling the stock surge

Specialist James Denaro works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Overview

  • Futures markets assign roughly 97%–98% odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September after July’s CPI undershot forecasts and payroll gains slowed
  • Treasury yields slid to multi-week lows, reducing borrowing costs and underpinning gains in U.S. equity benchmarks
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at all-time highs while Dow futures also climbed in early trading
  • Equity markets in Asia and Europe mirrored U.S. gains as relief over U.S.-China trade clarity and broader risk-on sentiment lifted stocks globally
  • Underneath the broad rally, Gildan Activewear unveiled a $2.2 billion takeover of HanesBrands and Cava plunged 24% in after-hours trading following a same-store sales miss