Overview

• U.S. soybean-meal exports reached about 9 million tonnes in January–July, a record for the period and 28% above the decade average, with 2024/25 shipments already over 15.6 Mt and tracking the USDA’s 16.2 Mt target.
• Stronger domestic crushing tied to biodiesel has lifted soybean oil use, with EPA proposals for record 2026–27 blending and industrial oil demand set to exceed non-industrial use as processing runs roughly 7 Mt above five years ago.
• China has not booked new-crop U.S. soybeans, the USDA trimmed the U.S. export outlook to 46 Mt, Brazil shipped 9.6 Mt to China in July, and Argentina is loading more than 1 Mt per month largely for the Chinese market.
• After export-duty cuts, Argentina’s sales accelerated: July soybean shipments topped 1.3 Mt, August is projected near another 1.3 Mt, the domestic price reached 395,000 pesos per tonne, and producers have pre-sold 56% of the crop.
• Markets are in a wait-and-see phase for confirmed Chinese purchases and definitive U.S. biofuels decisions, developments that could spark a price rally if they occur.