Overview
- Havana said 32 members of its security forces were killed during the U.S. raid in Caracas that seized Nicolás Maduro.
- President Trump said Cuba "looks like it's ready to fall" and suggested no immediate military move, while a senior White House official said the U.S. already controls Venezuela's oil supply.
- Analysts, including former NSC official Alex Gray, outlined options such as pushing Caracas to expel Cuban personnel, halt payments to Havana, and demand removal of a Chinese listening post.
- Cuba’s economy relies on discounted Venezuelan crude that has fallen from about 100,000 barrels per day at its peak to roughly 25,000–30,000, increasing its vulnerability.
- China is expected to avoid direct confrontation over Cuba, though experts say tougher U.S. sanctions and any cut to oil flows would intensify Havana’s strain.