Overview

• Roughly 750,000 federal employees are furloughed as President Trump signals possible mass firings and his budget office argues furloughed workers may not receive retroactive pay.
• Selective exemptions keep priority operations running, with DHS planning about 95% of staff on duty, trade work continuing, and activities like NASA’s Artemis and fossil‑fuel permitting proceeding as agencies such as EPA and Education face deep cuts.
• Air travel strain is rising, with increased FAA sick calls, a hours‑long closure at Hollywood Burbank Airport, and significant delays reported from Nashville to Chicago, Boston and Dallas.
• The White House is withholding major funding tied to Democratic‑led projects, including about $18 billion for New York transit and the Hudson Tunnel, $2.1 billion for Chicago rail extensions, and $7.6 billion in Energy Department renewables programs, according to OMB’s Russell Vought.
• Key federal data flows are breaking down as the Labor Department’s statistics unit is largely furloughed, canceling the monthly jobs report and clouding inflation releases, leaving the Fed with thinner inputs ahead of its Oct. 29 decision while prediction markets see the standoff lasting into mid‑October.