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U.S. Shutdown Ends as Markets Reprice Fed Cut on Data Void

Missing October figures leave the Fed guessing on a December cut.

Overview

  • President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the 43‑day shutdown, with agencies reopening and September jobs data likely among the first delayed reports to be released.
  • The White House said October employment and Consumer Price Index reports may never be published, leaving a permanent gap in official statistics.
  • Traders now assign roughly a 50%–55% probability to a December rate cut, and Fed officials have signaled caution given the incomplete data picture.
  • U.S. stocks show rotation as the Dow posts back‑to‑back record closes above 48,000 while major tech and AI leaders lag and futures trade mixed.
  • AI spending and valuations face fresh scrutiny even as corporate signals diverge, with Cisco lifting its full‑year outlook and AMD rallying on multi‑year growth targets, and attention turning to Nvidia’s upcoming results.
  • The yen weakened toward 155 per dollar with Tokyo officials warning they are watching markets, and the currency set a record low against the euro.