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U.S. Shale Oil Production Declines as Industry Hits Critical Turning Point

Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy announce significant cuts in drilling activity, signaling the end of a historic production boom.

A pumpjack in Kern County, west of Buttonwillow, Calif., on April 9, 2025.
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Overview

  • Diamondback Energy confirms U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and will begin to decline this quarter due to sustained low oil prices.
  • Frac crew counts have fallen 15% nationwide, with the Permian Basin seeing a 20% drop since January, and further declines are expected.
  • U.S. oil-directed rig counts are projected to decrease by nearly 10% by the end of the second quarter, continuing into the third quarter.
  • Diamondback has reduced its capital budget by $400 million, while Coterra Energy plans a 30% cut in Permian rigs, reallocating some investment to natural gas operations.
  • Falling crude prices, driven by OPEC+ supply increases and U.S. tariffs, jeopardize the nation’s energy security and its position as the world's top fossil fuel producer.