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U.S. Shale Oil Production Declared at Peak as Rig Counts Fall Further

Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy signal declining activity and spending cuts as oil prices hover near four-year lows.

A pumpjack in Kern County, west of Buttonwillow, Calif., on April 9, 2025.
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Overview

  • Diamondback Energy has announced that U.S. onshore oil production has peaked and is expected to decline this quarter without a significant price rebound.
  • The U.S. frac crew count has dropped 15% year-to-date, with the Permian Basin seeing a sharper 20% decline from January peaks.
  • Rig counts are projected to decrease by nearly 10% by the end of Q2, with further declines anticipated in the third quarter, according to industry data.
  • Coterra Energy has reduced its 2025 Permian rig guidance by 30%, planning to operate an average of seven rigs in the second half of the year.
  • Oil prices recently rebounded slightly after hitting four-year lows, with WTI futures rising over 3% to just below $60 per barrel, though uncertainty persists.