Overview
- The expectation was delivered in Washington this week by Pentagon staff overseeing NATO policy to several European delegations, according to multiple sources.
- U.S. officials warned that failure to meet the 2027 goal could lead Washington to stop participating in select NATO defense coordination mechanisms.
- Several European governments argue they cannot replace key U.S. capabilities quickly due to industrial bottlenecks and long delivery timelines for major systems.
- It remains unclear whether the deadline reflects a formal administration policy or chiefly the position of certain Pentagon officials.
- Independent analysis by Bruegel estimates Europe would need tens of new brigades, major equipment surges, and more than $250 billion annually to offset a U.S. conventional drawdown.