Overview
- ISM nonmanufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in October, with new orders up to 56.2 and prices paid at a three‑year high of 70.0, while services employment stayed in contraction at 48.2.
- Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys point to modest goods‑sector growth with sharply higher input costs and near‑flat employment.
- ADP reported a stronger‑than‑expected 42,000 private payroll gain and said it will publish weekly employment updates during the shutdown.
- The Congressional Budget Office estimates the prolonged shutdown could reduce fourth‑quarter GDP by 1.0 to 2.0 percentage points, deepening the reliance on PMIs and private data.
- The Supreme Court heard arguments on presidential tariff authority, leaving existing duties in place for now as surveys cite tariffs for higher costs and weaker export demand; services PMIs abroad showed UK at 52.3, Canada at 50.5, and Japan at 53.1.