Overview
- The Commerce Department reported a 4.3% annualized GDP gain in the summer quarter, the fastest in about two years, driven largely by consumer outlays along with gains in exports and government spending.
- Labor-market data tell a different story, with unemployment at 4.6% in November and monthly job creation hovering near 51,000 as Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that hiring may be overstated.
- Corporate profits from current production jumped by $166 billion in Q3 even as some investment measures weakened, reflecting firms’ ability to boost output with fewer workers through automation and AI.
- Inflation readings are mixed: the BLS put November inflation at 2.7% year over year, yet economists say shutdown-impaired data collection and imputed figures, especially for housing, likely distorted the reports as PCE services inflation accelerated in Q3.
- Spending strength looks concentrated among affluent households, reinforcing a K‑shaped pattern that has left many consumers strained, and forecasters say the 43‑day shutdown will likely trim fourth‑quarter growth.