Overview
- President Donald Trump announced that U.S. forces conducted a large-scale strike early Saturday and captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, saying he was flown out of the country.
- Before the operation, markets priced a low chance of Maduro leaving power by January 31—roughly 6% to 8%—despite heavy wagering that reached about $56.6 million across six related contracts.
- A newly created Polymarket account that began betting on December 31 invested roughly $30,000 to $34,000 on Maduro’s ouster and redeemed about $400,000 to $436,760 shortly after the announcement.
- U.S. prosecutors filed an updated New York indictment on January 3 naming Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on narcotics, weapons, and narco‑terrorism counts tied to the long-running case.
- Commentators and some politicians are calling for tighter oversight of event-based betting, the bettor’s identity remains unknown, Polymarket has not addressed insider-trading questions, and legal authority for the strike has been questioned.