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US Review Backs AUKUS Submarine Plan, Virginia Transfers Still on Track

Strained shipyards, unresolved waste plans, contested workshare raise delivery risk.

Overview

  • US officials say AUKUS will proceed broadly unchanged, preserving plans to transfer 3–5 Virginia-class submarines to Australia from the early 2030s.
  • Under the current plan, SSN-AUKUS boats match the Royal Navy design, with Australian vessels to be built in Adelaide and reactors produced by Rolls-Royce in Derby.
  • The Pentagon review led by Undersecretary Elbridge Colby tested alignment with the administration’s agenda and highlighted pressure on the US industrial base.
  • Shipbuilding capacity remains a critical constraint, with Admiral Daryl Caudle indicating output must roughly double to meet US needs and AUKUS commitments.
  • An Australian parliamentary inquiry heard warnings on sovereign workshare and nuclear waste challenges, as officials noted disposal facilities would not be needed until the 2050s and critics questioned multi-decade costs estimated up to A$368 billion.