Overview

• China has doubled its operational warheads to about 600 in five years and is racing to build up to 1,500 warheads by 2035 with new ICBM silos and diverse delivery systems
• Russia has suspended New START limits, revised its nuclear doctrine to threaten states aiding Ukraine and deployed weapons in Belarus while exploring space-based options
• Delays and cost overruns have pushed U.S. modernization programs years behind schedule, forcing extended use of Minuteman III missiles and a reduction in planned Columbia-class submarines
• Eroding confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella has led allies such as South Korea and some NATO members to openly consider developing their own arsenals, straining the NPT framework
• Facing concurrent threats, U.S. leaders are examining near-term fixes like uploading extra warheads to existing missiles and extending submarine service alongside plans for more varied future forces