Overview
- The Commerce Department reported on Sept. 16 that retail and food services receipts rose 1.2% in August and that core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, climbed 1.4%.
- Total nominal retail and food services receipts were $773.9 billion in August, up 6.0% from a year earlier after July’s figure was revised down to a 0.5% decline.
- A meaningful share of the gain reflected rising gasoline prices that raised service-station receipts, so the headline increase partly reflects higher prices rather than only more items sold.
- The stronger-than-expected report pushed economists to raise third-quarter GDP forecasts and coincided with the Federal Reserve moving to raise its policy rate, reinforcing market expectations of tighter policy.
- Economists warned the bounce may not last because higher pump prices, falling real wages and strains on lower-income households will likely curb spending; measurement quirks such as Prime Day timing and one-off retailer actions also complicate the outlook.