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U.S. Refusal Halts Iraq’s Turkmen Gas Deal via Iran

Baghdad suspended the swap over sanctions risk, turning to LNG options.

People walk along an old street as a tangled web of electrical wires from a generator supplying homes with electricity hangs above buildings, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 10, 2025. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
A drone view shows flames emerging from flare stacks at Nahr Bin Omar oilfield, in Basra, Iraq September 18, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty
A drone view shows Shatt Al-Basra Gas Power Plant in Basra, Iraq, August 30, 2025. REUTERS/Mohammed Aty/File Photo
People walk along an old street as a tangled web of electrical wires from a generator supplying homes with electricity hangs above buildings, in Baghdad, Iraq, September 10, 2025. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

Overview

  • Adel Karim, an adviser to Iraq’s prime minister, said the contract is on hold because moving ahead could trigger U.S. sanctions on Iraqi banks and financial institutions.
  • The proposed swap sought 5.025 bcm of Turkmen gas per year via Iran’s NIGC, with no payments to Iran and up to 23% of volumes retained there, under third‑party monitoring to satisfy sanctions rules.
  • A U.S. source said the Trump administration would not approve arrangements that could benefit Iran, although Washington is working with Iraq on its energy needs.
  • Ending a U.S. waiver in March reduced Iranian supplies, costing about 3,000 megawatts of Iraqi generation during peak demand and contributing to shortages that included a nationwide blackout in August.
  • With the route blocked, Iraq is pursuing LNG via leased floating regasification units and seeking supplies from Qatar and Oman, while accelerating domestic gas projects with majors such as TotalEnergies, BP, and Chevron; TotalEnergies launched the next phase at Ratawi this week.